Marshmallow
Original: Marshmallow on Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
Transcript
Title: PROPOSAL: REVISED STANFORD MARSHMALLOW TESTS
TEST 1: LINEAR DISCOUNT RATE MARSHMALLOW TEST
Step 1: Children are made to declare their discount rate b for marshmallows over time.
Child: Oonts queue zang point sxet
Step 2: The quantity of marshmallows they receive for waiting grows linearly as M(T) = 1+bT.
Step 3: When they finally eat a marshmallow, we calculate whether they maximized 1+b(T-bT).
Child: TWEEVE POINT FIVE MAREMEWWO
Prediction: Kindergarteners will successfully, after time the optimal stopping time is obtained by having the derivative, getting 1+T = zero, then finding T_optimal = 1/(2b) - 1(b) will be more successful than average.
TEST 2: EXPONENTIAL DISCOUNT RATE MARSHMALLOW TEST
Step 1: Children state their discount rate b.
Child: zewo point eight YAY!
Step 2: Set the growth rate b of marshmallows higher than b, such that the utility function U(T)=(1/b - b)T grows to infinity.
Step 3: Any kid caught eating at any time is shamed for being irrational.
Child (eating): sabotimal!
Prediction: Most children will eat a marshmallow. Future theoretical economists now expunged from the population.
TEST 2 [sic]: NASH EQUILIBRIUM MARSHMALLOW TEST
Step 1: Two children sit at a table in front of a bowl, either may claim the entire bowl's contents at any time.
Step 2: Every 10 seconds a marshmallow drops from the ceiling into the bowl.
Prediction: If iterated, eventually all children will immediately grab the bowl, proving that marshmallow tests may be more about scarcity than marshmallows.
Votey: (none)
TEST 1: LINEAR DISCOUNT RATE MARSHMALLOW TEST
Step 1: Children are made to declare their discount rate b for marshmallows over time.
Child: Oonts queue zang point sxet
Step 2: The quantity of marshmallows they receive for waiting grows linearly as M(T) = 1+bT.
Step 3: When they finally eat a marshmallow, we calculate whether they maximized 1+b(T-bT).
Child: TWEEVE POINT FIVE MAREMEWWO
Prediction: Kindergarteners will successfully, after time the optimal stopping time is obtained by having the derivative, getting 1+T = zero, then finding T_optimal = 1/(2b) - 1(b) will be more successful than average.
TEST 2: EXPONENTIAL DISCOUNT RATE MARSHMALLOW TEST
Step 1: Children state their discount rate b.
Child: zewo point eight YAY!
Step 2: Set the growth rate b of marshmallows higher than b, such that the utility function U(T)=(1/b - b)T grows to infinity.
Step 3: Any kid caught eating at any time is shamed for being irrational.
Child (eating): sabotimal!
Prediction: Most children will eat a marshmallow. Future theoretical economists now expunged from the population.
TEST 2 [sic]: NASH EQUILIBRIUM MARSHMALLOW TEST
Step 1: Two children sit at a table in front of a bowl, either may claim the entire bowl's contents at any time.
Step 2: Every 10 seconds a marshmallow drops from the ceiling into the bowl.
Prediction: If iterated, eventually all children will immediately grab the bowl, proving that marshmallow tests may be more about scarcity than marshmallows.
Votey: (none)
Alt text
A tall SMBC comic titled "PROPOSAL: REVISED STANFORD MARSHMALLOW TESTS," laying out three absurdly over-mathematized versions of the classic delayed-gratification experiment, each with numbered steps and a mock academic prediction. Test 1, the Linear Discount Rate test, has a child first declare a discount rate (babbling nonsense like "Oonts queue zang point sxet"), then receive marshmallows growing linearly over time, then shout a garbled number ("TWEEVE POINT FIVE MAREMEWWO") when they finally eat; the prediction is a dense, partly-gibberish derivation claiming kindergarteners will compute the optimal stopping time and beat average. Test 2, the Exponential Discount Rate test, again has the child state a rate ("zewo point eight YAY!"), sets marshmallow growth to infinity, and shames any kid who eats early as irrational, with a small drawing of a child cheerfully eating and saying "sabotimal!"; the prediction notes most kids will just eat, conveniently expunging future theoretical economists from the population. The final test, labeled the Nash Equilibrium test, shows two children at a table with a bowl that either may grab entirely at any moment, with a marshmallow dropping from the ceiling into the bowl every ten seconds; the prediction is that, iterated, all children will immediately grab the bowl, suggesting the marshmallow test is really about scarcity. The joke is the escalating, deadpan economic over-engineering of a simple psychology experiment until the children just rationally seize everything. There is no votey panel.
Transcribed by Claude Opus 4.8.