bayesianism
Original: bayesianism on Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
Transcript
Panel 1: A bald man in a robe speaks.
Man: According to Bayesianism, every theory, no matter how ridiculous, has some probability of being true.
Panel 2:
Man: But the sum of all theories multiplied by their probability must still be one.
Panel 3:
Man: Therefore, I've created a new device: The Bayesian Overlooker!
Panel 4:
Man: Start with some very probable theory that nobody likes. For example: "I will die someday."
Panel 5:
Man: Now, we set the Overlooker to generate opposing theories like "everyone liman will not die" or "only pumpkins die" or "nobody has ever died -- there's all just sleeping."
Panel 6:
Man: The Overlooker creates hundreds or trillions of theories every second.
Panel 7:
Man: Because all of these theories get some slice of the probability pie, so long as we generate theories fast enough, the undesirable theory becomes less and less true.
Panel 8:
Man: We want about thirty quadragooglion, then BAM! The initial theory is now vanishingly unlikely!
Panel 9 (the man, now wild-eyed and brandishing a knife, in dramatic red lighting):
Man: And thus, I am immortal!
Panel 10 (a crowd scene; a woman in the foreground addresses the reader):
Woman: See, that's why I'm a frequentist.
Votey: A handwritten note reads: "Just to be clear: This is exactly how Bayesianism works."
Man: According to Bayesianism, every theory, no matter how ridiculous, has some probability of being true.
Panel 2:
Man: But the sum of all theories multiplied by their probability must still be one.
Panel 3:
Man: Therefore, I've created a new device: The Bayesian Overlooker!
Panel 4:
Man: Start with some very probable theory that nobody likes. For example: "I will die someday."
Panel 5:
Man: Now, we set the Overlooker to generate opposing theories like "everyone liman will not die" or "only pumpkins die" or "nobody has ever died -- there's all just sleeping."
Panel 6:
Man: The Overlooker creates hundreds or trillions of theories every second.
Panel 7:
Man: Because all of these theories get some slice of the probability pie, so long as we generate theories fast enough, the undesirable theory becomes less and less true.
Panel 8:
Man: We want about thirty quadragooglion, then BAM! The initial theory is now vanishingly unlikely!
Panel 9 (the man, now wild-eyed and brandishing a knife, in dramatic red lighting):
Man: And thus, I am immortal!
Panel 10 (a crowd scene; a woman in the foreground addresses the reader):
Woman: See, that's why I'm a frequentist.
Votey: A handwritten note reads: "Just to be clear: This is exactly how Bayesianism works."
Alt text
A ten-panel comic. A bald man in a robe lectures: per Bayesianism, every theory however ridiculous has some probability of being true, but the sum of all theories times their probability must equal one. He proudly unveils "The Bayesian Overlooker," a device that mass-generates opposing theories. His plan: start with a very probable but unwanted theory ("I will die someday"), then have the Overlooker spew hundreds or trillions of absurd counter-theories per second (e.g. "only pumpkins die," "nobody has ever died -- they're all just sleeping"). Since every theory claims a slice of the probability pie, generating enough of them makes the unwanted theory vanishingly unlikely. After about "thirty quadragooglion" theories, he declares -- now wild-eyed and brandishing a knife in red dramatic lighting -- "And thus, I am immortal!" In the final panel a woman in a crowd turns to the reader and says, "See, that's why I'm a frequentist." Votey (aftercomic): a handwritten note reading, "Just to be clear: This is exactly how Bayesianism works."
Transcribed by Claude Opus 4.8.