election-probability
Original: election-probability on Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
Transcript
Panel 1:
Daughter (a small girl with red hair): Dad, I think your candidate is going to lose today's primaries.
Dad (a balding man with glasses, reading a book in an armchair): Nonsense.
Panel 2:
Dad: There are three states voting today. Her opponent has a 60% chance to win each of them.
Panel 3:
Dad: But, that means his chance of winning all three is 60% of 60% of 60%, which is 21.6%.
Panel 4:
Dad: Since probabilities have to sum to 100%, and there are only two people running, MY candidate has a 78.4% chance of winning all three states.
Panel 5:
(Silent panel: the daughter walks away.)
Panel 6:
Sound effect: WHOOOAAA...
Daughter (offscreen, small reply): Yep.
Panel 7:
Daughter: Mom, you were all wrong about probability.
Mom (a woman with glasses sitting with the daughter): At least when I go to kill him, he won't have predicted it.
Votey:
Mom (speaking, smiling): Mom says she no longer loves you, and these jokes have gone from funny to tired to irritating to tragic.
Daughter (a small girl with red hair): Dad, I think your candidate is going to lose today's primaries.
Dad (a balding man with glasses, reading a book in an armchair): Nonsense.
Panel 2:
Dad: There are three states voting today. Her opponent has a 60% chance to win each of them.
Panel 3:
Dad: But, that means his chance of winning all three is 60% of 60% of 60%, which is 21.6%.
Panel 4:
Dad: Since probabilities have to sum to 100%, and there are only two people running, MY candidate has a 78.4% chance of winning all three states.
Panel 5:
(Silent panel: the daughter walks away.)
Panel 6:
Sound effect: WHOOOAAA...
Daughter (offscreen, small reply): Yep.
Panel 7:
Daughter: Mom, you were all wrong about probability.
Mom (a woman with glasses sitting with the daughter): At least when I go to kill him, he won't have predicted it.
Votey:
Mom (speaking, smiling): Mom says she no longer loves you, and these jokes have gone from funny to tired to irritating to tragic.
Alt text
A six-panel SMBC comic. A red-haired girl tells her bald, glasses-wearing dad, who is reading in an armchair, that his candidate is going to lose today's primaries. He says 'Nonsense.' He explains that three states are voting today and her opponent has a 60% chance to win each of them. He then reasons that the opponent's chance of winning all three is 60% x 60% x 60% = 21.6%, and since probabilities must sum to 100% with only two people running, HIS candidate therefore has a 78.4% chance of winning all three states. The girl silently walks away. A sound effect 'WHOOOAAA...' plays as she leaves; she says 'Yep.' She goes to her mom and says 'Mom, you were all wrong about probability.' The mom, smiling slightly, replies 'At least when I go to kill him, he won't have predicted it.' The joke is the dad's gleefully broken probability math, capped by mom's deadpan murderous comeback. Votey (aftercomic): a close-up of the smiling mom saying, 'Mom says she no longer loves you, and these jokes have gone from funny to tired to irritating to tragic.'
Transcribed by Claude Opus 4.8.