empirical-economics
Original: empirical-economics on Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
Transcript
Panel 1 (Speaker at a podium): In order to determine what economic interventions are best in developing countries, we must use randomized controlled trials.
Panel 2: These trials are based on the successful methods used to evaluate medical drugs. Thus, for our study, we looked at two groups.
Panel 3: One group was given direct cash injections. Another was given 'placebo cash' which were pieces of paper with hastily-drawn pictures of George Washington on them.
Panel 4: The placebo group posted photos online of us giving them fake money, causing worldwide outrage.
Panel 5: This led to massive contributions of clothing, food, educational resources, medicine, and non-placebo cash to the placebo group.
Panel 6: As a result, they experienced a significant decrease in child mortality and an increase in household wealth, far outpacing the cash-injection group during the five year period of study.
Panel 7: The policy implication is clear.
Panel 8: Given the high cost of being empirically wrong, we recommend a return to being theoretically wrong.
Panel 9 (audience member): Will that improve life for the poor?
Panel 9 (speaker): Our model says YES!
Votey:
Speech bubble: ALSO 'NO' AND 'SORTA'.
(The presenter's face shown looking uneasy.)
Panel 2: These trials are based on the successful methods used to evaluate medical drugs. Thus, for our study, we looked at two groups.
Panel 3: One group was given direct cash injections. Another was given 'placebo cash' which were pieces of paper with hastily-drawn pictures of George Washington on them.
Panel 4: The placebo group posted photos online of us giving them fake money, causing worldwide outrage.
Panel 5: This led to massive contributions of clothing, food, educational resources, medicine, and non-placebo cash to the placebo group.
Panel 6: As a result, they experienced a significant decrease in child mortality and an increase in household wealth, far outpacing the cash-injection group during the five year period of study.
Panel 7: The policy implication is clear.
Panel 8: Given the high cost of being empirically wrong, we recommend a return to being theoretically wrong.
Panel 9 (audience member): Will that improve life for the poor?
Panel 9 (speaker): Our model says YES!
Votey:
Speech bubble: ALSO 'NO' AND 'SORTA'.
(The presenter's face shown looking uneasy.)
Alt text
A nine-panel SMBC comic. A presenter stands at a podium giving an academic talk. She explains that to determine the best economic interventions in developing countries, they used randomized controlled trials based on the methods used to evaluate medical drugs, studying two groups. One group got direct cash injections; the other got 'placebo cash' — pieces of paper with hastily-drawn pictures of George Washington. The placebo group posted photos online of being given fake money, causing worldwide outrage, which led to massive donations of clothing, food, educational resources, medicine, and real cash to the placebo group. As a result, the placebo group saw a significant decrease in child mortality and increase in household wealth, far outpacing the real cash-injection group over five years. The presenter concludes: 'The policy implication is clear. Given the high cost of being empirically wrong, we recommend a return to being theoretically wrong.' An audience member asks, 'Will that improve life for the poor?' and the presenter cheerfully replies, 'Our model says YES!' The joke skewers economists privileging models over real-world outcomes. Votey: a close-up of the presenter's uneasy face with a speech bubble adding, 'Also "no" and "sorta."'
Transcribed by Claude Opus 4.8.