blood-of-the-bayesian
Original: blood-of-the-bayesian on Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal
Transcript
Panel 1:
Woman: I have this idea for a movie called "Bayesian Vampire"!
Panel 2:
Narration: A man is bitten by a vampire ...AND BECOMES ONE.
Panel 3:
Woman: Given the lack of evidence for vampires, and the fact that they are biologically implausible, he knows that the odds of his being a vampire are quite low.
Man (thinking): I probably just THINK I lust for blood because I have B12 deficiency.
Panel 4:
Woman: He spends the rest of the movie making observations and inferences.
Man: Huh. No reflection. Most likely an optical illusion.
Panel 5:
Woman: But given his low priors, he ends up dying before changing his mind.
Man: That's funny. Does my body USUALLY turn into ash when exposed to the noonday sun?
Man: I should really keep a diary.
Panel 6:
Man (companion): I don't think the public is ready for this. People like SEXY vampires.
Panel 7:
Woman: Rational skepticism is the new sexy!
Panel 8:
Man: What's your evidence for that claim?
Panel 9:
Woman: I never claimed to be sexy!
Votey:
A close-up of the woman's face, eyes downcast and downbeat.
Woman: But... "absense of evidence"... [sic]
Woman: I have this idea for a movie called "Bayesian Vampire"!
Panel 2:
Narration: A man is bitten by a vampire ...AND BECOMES ONE.
Panel 3:
Woman: Given the lack of evidence for vampires, and the fact that they are biologically implausible, he knows that the odds of his being a vampire are quite low.
Man (thinking): I probably just THINK I lust for blood because I have B12 deficiency.
Panel 4:
Woman: He spends the rest of the movie making observations and inferences.
Man: Huh. No reflection. Most likely an optical illusion.
Panel 5:
Woman: But given his low priors, he ends up dying before changing his mind.
Man: That's funny. Does my body USUALLY turn into ash when exposed to the noonday sun?
Man: I should really keep a diary.
Panel 6:
Man (companion): I don't think the public is ready for this. People like SEXY vampires.
Panel 7:
Woman: Rational skepticism is the new sexy!
Panel 8:
Man: What's your evidence for that claim?
Panel 9:
Woman: I never claimed to be sexy!
Votey:
A close-up of the woman's face, eyes downcast and downbeat.
Woman: But... "absense of evidence"... [sic]
Alt text
A nine-panel SMBC comic. A woman pitches a movie idea called "Bayesian Vampire" to a man. In it (shown in inset panels), a man bitten by a vampire becomes one, but because he reasons from low prior probabilities, he refuses to believe he is a vampire: he attributes his blood lust to a B12 deficiency, his lack of a reflection to an optical illusion, and finally, as he turns to ash in the noonday sun, muses that he should keep a diary. He dies before updating his belief. Back in the framing conversation, the woman's companion says the public isn't ready for this because people like SEXY vampires. She declares "Rational skepticism is the new sexy!" He asks for her evidence for that claim, and she replies, "I never claimed to be sexy!" In the votey aftercomic, a close-up of the woman's now-deflated, downcast face as she mutters, "But... 'absense of evidence'..." (misspelled), trying to invoke the maxim that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Transcribed by Claude Opus 4.8.